Home > From the Ether . . ., Uncategorized > The Counter Trend Rally Continues – Jim Sinclair (Oct 2012)

The Counter Trend Rally Continues – Jim Sinclair (Oct 2012)

Trying to predict the real fiscal cliff – looks like 2014, possibly late 2014 according to these charts for the S&P and Gold (vs. the Federal Govt. budget).  This is consistent with the predictions by John Williams as well.  Rising interest rates will only affect gold/silver negatively if they surpass rising inflation – which will not happen due to the commensurate rise in inflation that will far exceed interest rates due to global money printing.  We are currently in a “counter trend rally” or a bear rally – the long term prospectus (meaning this decade) is unchanged and will begin to accelerate exponentially at some point . . .  See Jim Sinclair’s analysis below . . .

***

As long as the formula’s counter trend rally remains in tact, expect continued concentration of capital in the risk-on trade(s).  The risk-on trade will be vulnerable  when the up trends below deteriorate against an endless backdrop of bullish expectations (Chart 1, 2).

Jim’s Formula:
September 1, 2006

1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.

2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella – Goldilocks situations.

3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.

4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.

5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.

6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.

7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.

8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).

9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.

10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.

11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.

12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.

Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.

I heard all this “slow business” as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.

 

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